The cycles of real estate
History is seasonal and winter is coming... (or is it here?)
The final of my series of ChatGPT prompts inspired by AREC on the weekend is from a keynote by Tom Ferry.
With two sessions at the event, Tom always brings energy and motivation.
And let’s face it motivation for some people in real estate is exactly what’s needed right now.
To prove that different markets have different seasons and that the highs and lows can be somewhat cyclical, and different people have different needs at different times (a lot, I know) he told us all to go read two books:
The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe
The End of the World is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan
Today’s Prompt of the Day
I think before I want to commit to any book these days, I want ChatGPT to give me an idea of what I am getting into before I invest the time, so here’s today’s prompt:
Can you please summarise the key points of the Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe. Aim it at a 13 year old high school student, using bullet points.
(I’m asking for high school and bullet points because it’s been a long day, and the book looks complex!)
Here’s the response:
Sure, let's break down the key points of "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe in a simplified manner:
History moves in cycles: The authors argue that history doesn't move in a straight line but in cycles. Just like the seasons, events and attitudes repeat themselves over time.
The four turnings: The authors define a cycle as lasting about 80-100 years, roughly the length of a human life. They split this cycle into four "turnings", each lasting around 20-25 years. They compare these to the four seasons:
First Turning (Spring): A High, a period of optimism and strong institutions. Society is confident and trusts its leaders.
Second Turning (Summer): An Awakening, a time of social and spiritual change. People start questioning existing values and institutions.
Third Turning (Autumn): An Unraveling, when institutions are weak and individualism is strong. Society can feel disconnected.
Fourth Turning (Winter): A Crisis, a period of major upheaval and possibly war. This leads to a rebuilding of society's institutions and a new First Turning.
Generational theory: Each turning corresponds with a generation (people born around the same time). Generations experience the same big events (like wars or economic crashes) at the same age, which shapes their attitudes and behaviors. This contributes to the cycle of history.
Predicting the future: The authors believe that by understanding these cycles, we can predict what will happen in the future. For example, if we're in a Third Turning, we can expect a crisis soon.
Our role in the cycle: According to the book, each generation has a role to play in these cycles. Understanding the cycle can help us understand what our role might be.
Keep in mind that this is a theory and not everyone agrees with it. Some people find it useful and others think it's too simplistic. You can decide for yourself!
All very interesting - and I have a hunch we’re in a winter phase here but I’m going to ask the question anyway…
What turning are we in now?
Here is the response:
Based on the Strauss-Howe generational theory, we are currently in the Fourth Turning. This turning is said to have started around 2008, marked by the global financial crisis. The generation born between 1982 and 2004, known as the Hero generation, is tasked with restoring order to society and addressing social and economic challenges during this period1.
OK, so our future is in the hands of millennials…so now I feel like I’m on a bit of an astrology/predicting the future kind of mission… next question:
When will the fourth turning be over?
And the answer:
According to the Strauss-Howe generational theory, the current Fourth Turning, which began around 2008, is projected to last until around 20301.
Clearly, this is a fascinating conversation that could go on long into the night 🍷
For my paid subscribers, as always thank you 🙏🏻 I’ve included the link to my chats for you to continue the conversation.
As you’ll see there are a lot of caveats!
Happy Hunting 🚀
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